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Forum: In the News
Thread (Discussion): [Miami Herald] Sex crimes up 9%; other violent crimes down
Message 125191
Introduction
Posted by admin
on Jan 16, 2004 10:49 AM | Also by admin
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Discuss the article Sex crimes up 9%; other violent crimes down, by Gail Epstein Nieves, which appeared on Miami Herald on January 14, 2004.
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Message 125192 (In Reply to Message 125191)
Posted by steve
on Jan 16, 2004 04:05 PM | Also by steve
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Despite a slight drop in most violent crimes, Miami-Dade saw the number of sexual offenses go up. The county says more victims are reporting the crime...both claim shared credit for the county's crime drop since 1996, when Penelas spearheaded a crime-fighting campaign. But Florida State University criminology professor Gary Kleck said crime rates have been dropping nationally since 1992 and are leveling off now for a host of reasons, including longer prison sentences for career criminals, more prison beds and the economy. But Florida State University criminology professor Gary Kleck said crime rates have been dropping nationally since 1992 and are leveling off now for a host of reasons, including longer prison sentences for career criminals, more prison beds and the economy. ''It's wildly overestimating our level of knowledge to be able to claim that we can parse out the contribution of this or that particular program out of all the factors that affect crime rates,'' he said.
Gary Kleck makes a point that I've made many times here before. It doesn't matter whether we're talking about reported crimes, arrests or convictions and it doesn't matter whether we're talking about a rise or a fall in a statistic. As Mr. Kleck pointed out there can be a lot of factors that affect these statistics. I'm not saying that these statistics are meaningless, but I am saying that one should be careful when interpreting them.
Penelas said the 9 percent jump in sexual offenses could reflect higher reporting rates by victims rather than more crimes. Sex offenses are notoriously under-reported.
In a year filled with heightened community awareness about several serial rapists, they increased 106 over the year before to 1,267.
''This is the kind of chart where you almost want to see the numbers going up,'' Penelas said of the sexual offense chart.
Penelas is Miami's mayor and the article claims he's running for higher office. Common sense probably tells people that reporting rates are probably higher now than they were a generation ago. But did they leap in one year in Miami / Dade County? I think that would be very difficult to say.
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Message 125211 (In Reply to Message 125192)
Posted by orolan
on Jan 16, 2004 06:28 PM | Also by orolan
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I agree. Any statistic can be interpreted and presented to suit any agenda.
Odds are this guy will take the "increase" in sex crimes and point out the increase is due not to more crime or more reporting, but to more and better police investigations that are producing results ostensibly "under his firm leadership and guidance". After all, he IS aspiring to run for higher office!
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125191, admin, Jan 16, 2004 10:49 AM [Introduction]
125192, steve, Jan 16, 2004 04:05 PM
125211, orolan, Jan 16, 2004 06:28 PM
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